Property Market Update: Maryborough, Avoca, Dunolly and Carisbrook
A note before we start
I have been selling property in Central Victoria for nearly 25 years, and one thing I have learned is that no one has all the answers. Markets shift, data gets revised, and what feels certain in January can look different by July. What I can offer you is nearly 25 years of local experience, an honest read of what the data is telling us right now, and a genuine commitment to keeping you informed rather than just impressed.
This update draws on national research and local market data sourced from CoreLogic. I will tell you where I am confident and where I think you should ask more questions, including of me.
The national picture: what has been happening
Australia’s property market proved more resilient through 2022 and 2023 than many predicted. Despite a sustained period of interest rate rises, national home values still grew by around 4.9% through 2024, adding roughly $38,000 to the median property value nationally.
The Reserve Bank of Australia began cutting interest rates in early 2025. That shift has gradually improved borrowing capacity and brought buyers back to the table who had stepped away during the tighter years. Forecasters at KPMG projected national house price growth of around 3.3% for 2025, with stronger momentum expected in the second half of the year as rate cuts continued to flow through.
Consumer confidence has been improving, though it remains below long-term averages. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index sat at 86.8 in mid-November 2024, against a long-term average of 107.6. That gap matters because confidence drives decisions. When people feel uncertain about money, they wait. When that uncertainty starts to ease, they move.
I will be honest: national forecasts are exactly that, forecasts. They give a useful backdrop, but they do not tell you what is happening in Maryborough or Avoca specifically. That is where local knowledge and local data matter.
What is happening in our region
The Central Goldfields and Pyrenees regions have always operated at their own pace, and that is not a weakness. It means we are somewhat insulated from the sharper swings that hit capital cities. It also means buyers and sellers here need someone who understands this specific market, not just someone who reads the national headlines.
Here is what the current data tells us, with all the appropriate caveats about data sources and timing.
In Maryborough, the median house sale price sits in the range of $380,000 to $400,000, based on sales over the most recent 12-month period. There were approximately 196 to 229 house sales recorded, depending on the source and window used, with an average days on market of between 66 and 78 days. The variation in those figures reflects different methodologies across data providers, all drawing on CoreLogic data.
In Avoca, the median house sale price is around $350,000, based on 26 house sales in the past 12 months, with an average of 103 days on market. Avoca is a lower-volume market, which means individual sales can move the median meaningfully. I would always want to look at the specific properties sold alongside the median figure before drawing strong conclusions.
For Dunolly and Carisbrook, reliable current median sale price data is thinner because transaction volumes are lower. That does not mean those markets are inactive; it means the data needs to be interpreted carefully. If you are thinking about buying or selling in either town, a conversation with me will give you a much more useful picture than any published statistic.
What this means if you are thinking about selling
Affordability is genuinely one of our region’s strongest advantages right now. As borrowing capacity improves nationally, regional Victoria becomes increasingly attractive to buyers who cannot stretch to metropolitan prices but do not want to compromise on the quality of life they are looking for. That is our market. Those are our buyers.
What I see consistently is that well-prepared, correctly priced property sells. Not instantly in every case, but it sells. Overpriced property in a smaller market like ours sits, and that sitting costs you. It costs you time, it affects your negotiating position, and it can create doubt in buyers’ minds that is hard to recover from.
My approach to pricing is based on evidence, not optimism. I will tell you what the market supports, and I will tell you honestly if your expectations and the evidence are not aligned. That conversation is sometimes uncomfortable, but it is always more useful than being told what you want to hear.
What this means if you are thinking about buying
Regional Victoria continues to offer real value compared to metropolitan and coastal markets. The combination of improving borrowing capacity and relatively tight stock in our area creates reasonable conditions for buyers who are ready to move.
I would encourage you not to wait for perfect certainty, because it does not really exist in property. What does exist is good local knowledge, honest advice, and a clear understanding of what fair value looks like in each of these townships. That is what I bring to every buyer conversation: local knowledge.
A word on the rental market
Nationally, rental growth has been moderating after several years of sharp increases. CoreLogic data indicates that while rents reached record highs, the monthly growth rate had fallen to its lowest point in four years by late 2024. In our region, rental stock remains tight in many pockets, and population growth continues to support underlying demand. If you own an investment property here, or are considering one, it is worth a conversation about what the current conditions mean specifically for your situation.
My honest take
I know this market well. I also know that markets can surprise you, data can lag reality, and every property and every seller or buyer situation is genuinely different. I do not think experience means you have all the answers. I think it means you know the right questions to ask, and you know when to say “let me find out” rather than guessing.
If you would like to talk about what is happening in your street, your township, or your specific situation, I am always happy to have that conversation. No scripts, no pressure.
Reach me at realestatekate.com.au or call directly.
Market data sourced from CoreLogic. Figures reflect the most recently available 12-month period and are subject to change. Local median figures are drawn from CoreLogic data as published via third-party platforms and may vary slightly from direct CoreLogic reporting. For the most current figures specific to your property or suburb, please contact me directly.
